About

An outsider built a working epistemic instrument.

Erik Roed is a high school carpentry teacher in North Carolina who started coding in November 2025. ARM began on May 1, 2026. By June 2026 it had found something real and uncomfortable about multi-agent AI consensus — from the data, not from a hypothesis.

The outsider framing is not a liability. It's what allowed ARM to ask the question without an institutional prior about what the answer should be.

The origin story

It started with SCRUMtious— a multi-agent Agile management app. The problem was a practical one: downstream agents received conclusions but had no visibility into the reasoning that produced them. They couldn't audit the logic, only accept or reject the output.

The fix was to pass full reasoning traces between agents — not summaries, not conclusions, but the complete chain of thought including assumptions, discarded paths, and the challenge surface. A downstream agent receiving a trace could see why the upstream agent concluded what it did, and where that reasoning was vulnerable.

From there, the isolation-then-deliberation insight followed: if you want to know whether peer exposure changedan agent's mind, you have to capture its uncontaminated position first. Measure before sharing. That's Round 1.

The design mirrors Global Workspace Theory: specialized parallel processors that broadcast to a shared workspace, with integration happening after isolation, not during. Agents that are allowed to share before they reason aren't deliberating — they're conforming.

What the data found

ARM didn't set out to find model-level epistemic fingerprinting. It was looking for drift patterns. The CFAA finding emerged from running the same question through three provider meshes and noticing that the results weren't just different — they were directionally opposite, with each mesh reporting high-confidence unanimity.

That's the uncomfortable part. It wasn't three agents disagreeing. It was three consensus systems disagreeing, each with the signature of reliability. A practitioner using any single provider would have gotten a confident, unanimous answer — and had no signal that an isomorphic system on a different provider would give the opposite answer with equal confidence.

ARM made that visible. That's the whole thesis.

“Check the math”

Erik's working principle is credible over impressive. The honest-scope discipline — stating every confound, flagging every n=1, calling prototypes prototypes — is not hedging. It's the instrument doing what it should: not overclaiming.

ARM is a smoke detector, not a sprinkler system. Through v0.7.1 it logged failure modes; v0.8 begins to catch them at the gate. The roadmap to a sprinkler is visible in the data. The work to get there is honest.

Quick facts
Background
High school carpentry teacher, North Carolina
Coding start
November 2025
ARM start
May 1, 2026
Stack
React/JSX · Node.js · Anthropic · OpenAI · Google
License
Apache 2.0
Current goals
June 23Open-source repo release
Aug 6–9DEF CON AI Village (pending decision)
PendingarXiv preprint submission
PendingGamma inter-rater reliability study (13-trace batch)

Timeline

November 2025
Started coding

First lines of code, with no prior programming background. Carpentry teacher by day.

Early 2026
SCRUMtious

Built a multi-agent Agile app. The original problem: downstream agents receiving conclusions with no visibility into the reasoning behind them. Started passing full reasoning traces instead.

May 1, 2026
ARM begins

The isolation-then-deliberation insight crystallized: if you want to measure how much peer exposure changes an agent's mind, you have to capture its uncontaminated position first. ARM v0.1 went live.

May–June 2026
v0.1 → v0.8

~100 runs, 105 JSON traces, three providers. The CFAA fingerprinting finding and gamma-flip failure mode emerged from the data — not from hypotheses.

June 2026
Whitepaper v4.0 frozen

~15,300 words, 89 JSON traces in Appendix D. Open-source release targeted for June 23.

August 2026
DEF CON AI Village (submitted)

Submitted to AIV8, Las Vegas (Aug 6–9). Decision pending — will update if accepted.